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          美元指数 走强涨破 只是意外 听听分析师怎么说_www.forex21.cn

          时间:2018/4/25 22:37:12 点击:

            核心提示: According to the foreign exchange network market center data, the deadline for the deadline for Be...
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          According to the foreign exchange network market center data, the deadline for the deadline for Beijing at 20:46 on Wednesday, the dollar index rose by 0.5%, reported 91.22, continued to brush the new high since January 12th this year, the euro against US dollar exchange rate fell by 0.5%, report 1.2172, refresh the new low since March 1st. But the best currency for analysts is it!

          Although no one expects policymakers to announce higher interest rates at the ECB meeting on Thursday (April 26th), the conditions for the euro's recovery have matured for the most part of the last 3 months.

          Opponents like to point out the purchasing managers' index (PMI), which shows that the slowdown in manufacturing in the euro zone and the slowdown in economic growth are the reasons for the failure of the euro to achieve a significant increase in the past year. But the fact is that the downside risks of the euro zone economy are smaller than the downside risks of the US economy. The euro area's inflation rate is only 1.3%, though 2.7% over the same period last year. Despite the decline in the PMI index in recent months, they remained at a high level after 57 months of large-scale expansion as of March.

          In contrast, the April ISM manufacturing index in the United States faced significant downside risks following a sharp fall in the Empire Manufacturing Index expected series. The series experienced a second - month decline in its history, larger than any month during the financial crisis, or the stock market suffered heavy damage during the great depression. Although the dollar became one of the few unrelated assets when inflation risk triggered a cross market sell-off in February, the dollar has been difficult to surpass key technical indicators.


          Badly! The US dollar index continued to record a record increase of over 0.5%. Analysts are most optimistic about it.


          Even though the stock market fell on Tuesday, the dollar was under pressure.  Moreover, even if the Federal Reserve speed up the pace of raising interest rates and the European Central Bank will continue to implement loose monetary policy, the US dollar will also have more room to fall. The US dollar may face pressure from rising US Treasury bonds. In addition, the economic and labor market has been running at almost a peak, and there is also a risk of economic slowdown. In addition, the US stock market is no longer supported by the great optimism generated by the one-off revaluation transaction in 2017.

          During the period from July 2012 to September 2014, the Federal Reserve watched the ECB rapidly reduce its balance sheet, making the ECB almost a stimulus to its economy. Now, the European Central Bank is watching the impact of the Fed's moves. The ECB's best policy is to further sink the fed into the mire of balance sheet reduction and monetary tightening, because the mire may be deeper than it looks.

          If higher interest rates slow the growth of the US economy, any short-term dollar appreciation could turn into an economic recession. This means that in the short term, there is no need to look down on the euro. After all, the euro rose from a low of 1.04 at the beginning of 2017 to about 1.20 at the end of 2017, although the Fed was raising interest rates in 2017 and began to cut down balance sheet assets. Considering the long-term trend of the euro and the US dollar, the strength of the US dollar is an exception, not a rule. The euro seems to be more likely to rise from the recent 1.22 to 1.30, while the US dollar index is more likely to fall from the current 91.103 to the mid 80s.

          Although the ECB is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged this week, the euro is unlikely to fall below the critical level of 1.16 against the US dollar. The European Central Bank may be content to stand by and let the Fed embark on a painful path on the issue of monetary tightening.

           

          据外汇网行情中心数据显示,截止发稿北京时间周三20:46,美元指数涨超0.5%,现报91.22,续刷今年1月12日以来新高;欧元兑美元汇率跌超0.5%,现报1.2172,刷新3月1日以来新低。然而分析师最看好的货币是它!

            虽然没有人预计政策制定者会在周四(4月26日)欧洲央行会议上宣布提高利率,即便如此,在过去3个月的大部分时间里,欧元恢复上升趋势的条件已经成熟。

            反对者们喜欢指出采购经理人指数(PMI),调查显示欧元区制造业减速和经济增长潜力放缓,是欧元未能实现像去年大幅增长的原因。但事实是,欧元区经济的下行风险比美国经济的下行风险要小。欧元区的通货膨胀率仅为1.3%,尽管较上年同期增长2.7%。尽管最近几个月PMI指数有所下降,但在截至3月份经历长达57个月的大规模扩张之后,它们仍处于高位。

            相比之下,继帝国制造业指数(Empire Manufacturing Index)预期系列大幅下跌后,美国4月ISM制造业指数面临着重大的下行风险。该系列经历了其历史上第二大的一个月跌幅,比金融危机期间的任何一个月跌幅都要大,或者股市在大萧条期间遭受重创。尽管在2月份通胀风险引发跨市场抛售时,美元成为为数不多的不相关资产之一,但美元一直难以超越关键的技术指标。

            
          厉害了!美元指数继续刷新纪录涨超0.5%  分析师最看好的是它!


            尽管周二股市下跌,但美元也面临压力。而且,即使美联储加快加息步伐,欧洲央行继续推行宽松的货币政策,美元也会有更多的下跌空间。美元可能面临来自美国国债攀升的压力。此外,经济和劳动力市场的运行速度几乎超过了峰值水平,也存在经济减速的风险。另外,美国股票市场也不再因在2017年进行一次性的重新估值交易而产生的巨大乐观情绪所支撑。

            在2012年7月至2014年9月期间,美联储看着欧洲央行迅速降低资产负债表规模,这让欧洲央行几乎是在对其经济进行刺激。现在,欧洲央行正在观望美联储举措的影响。欧洲央行的最佳政策是让美联储进一步陷入资产负债表缩减和货币紧缩的泥潭,因为泥潭可能比看上去的更深。

            如果更高的利率让美国经济增长过快放缓,任何短期美元升值都有可能演变成经济衰退。这种意味着,在短期内也不需要看跌欧元。毕竟,欧元兑美元从2017年初的低点1.04上升至2017年年底的1.20左右,尽管2017年美联储正在加息,并开始削减资产负债表资产。考虑到欧元和美元的长期走势,美元的强势是例外,而不是规则。欧元兑美元似乎更有可能从最近的1.22上升至1.30,而美元指数则更有可能从目前的91.103回落至80年代中期。

            尽管本周欧洲央行可能维持利率不变,但欧元兑美元不太可能跌破1.16的临界水平。欧洲央行可能满足于袖手旁观,让美联储在货币紧缩的问题上走出一条痛苦的道路。

           

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