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          美元飙升之际 小心英镑空头或 大肆收割_www.forex21.cn

          时间:2018/4/25 22:23:30 点击:

            核心提示: In the European market on Wednesday (April 25th), the pound / dollar continued to fall to a minimu...
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          In the European market on Wednesday (April 25th), the pound / dollar continued to fall to a minimum, down to 1.3930, because the dollar broke out again this night and refreshed its high of 91.22 since January 12th.

          On the occasion of the full rise of US Treasury yields, the trend of the dollar has a positive correlation with the relevance of US debt yields, and the future of the US dollar is likely to rise further. It is expected to press the trend of non US currencies. Some investment banks are shouting: pound or become the first "victim"!

          The Societe Generale of France said that if the US dollar appreciated faster, the pound would become the first "victim" and the technology would be down, and the deterioration of the interest rate would also impact the pound.

          Alvin Tan, a foreign exchange analyst at faxing bank, said that the surge in US debt issuance and inflation in the US pushed the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds to 3%. If yields exceed 3% and continue to rise without risking panic in risky assets, the US dollar will go up sharply.

          The market is now questioning whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates in May. Technically, last week, the exchange rate recorded a bearish "phagocytosis" K-line combination, increasing the risk of building up. If the US dollar continues to appreciate, the pound will become the primary "victim".

          In addition, CFTC holdings data show that everyone is currently selling short dollars and doing more euros and pounds. Sterling net hit the highest level since 2014, and the pound is facing the risk of long profits.

          In addition, Simon Derrick, chief foreign exchange strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, pointed out that the U.S. - UK ten - year Treasury yield spreads are currently at the weakest level for the pound since October 1984 (at that time the pound was at 1.24 against the dollar).

          Scotiabank analysts in Canada pointed out that more extensive technical conditions suggest that the pound / dollar may still be weak and that it may continue to slide and test the upper middle of the 1.37 area since the 1.43 upper gear region fell last week.

          周三(4月25日)欧市盘中,英镑/美元持续走低,最低下挫至1.3930,缘于美元今夜又大爆发了,且刷新了1月12日以来的高位91.22。

            在美国国债收益率全线上扬之际,且美元走势与美债收益率的关联度呈现正相关,美元后市恐将进一步攀升,料将打压非美货币的走势。有投行更是喊出:英镑或成为首要的“受害者”!

            法国兴业银行表示若美元加速升值,则英镑将成为首要“受害者”,技术上看跌,且利率前景恶化也将冲击英镑。

            法兴银行外汇分析师Alvin Tan表示,美债发行剧增以及美国通胀上升推动10年期美国国债收益率逼近3%。若收益率突破3%继续攀升且没有引发风险资产陷入恐慌,则美元将大幅上扬。”

            目前市场质疑英央行是否将在5月份加息。技术上,上周汇价录得看跌的“空头吞噬”K线组合,增加筑顶风险。若美元持续升值,英镑将成为首要“受害者”。

            此外CFTC持仓数据表明,目前人人都在做空美元,做多欧元和英镑。英镑净多头触及2014年以来的最高水平,英镑面临多头结利的风险。

            此外,纽约梅隆银行首席外汇策略师Simon Derrick指出,美国-英国十年期国债收益率息差目前对英镑的支撑作用为1984年10月以来最弱水平(当时英镑兑美元处于1.24)。

            加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)分析师指出,更广泛的技术情况表明,英镑/美元可能仍然疲软,而且其上周自1.43上档区域下滑后,可能继续下滑并测试1.37中上档区域。

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