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          央行定向 降准释放 4000 的亿红包_www.forex21.cn

          时间:2018/4/19 12:54:21 点击:

            核心提示: 4月17日,央行发布公告表示,将于4月25日起下调部分银行人民币存款准备金率1个百分点。而此前央行行长易纲释放信号表示...
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          4月17日,央行发布公告表示,将于4月25日起下调部分银行人民币存款准备金率1个百分点。而此前央行行长易纲释放信号表示,“已经做好收紧货币政策的准备”,因此,此次央行降准明显在市场预期之外,但在分析人士看来,此次降准并不会影响货币政策稳健中性的取向。在置换中期借贷便利(MLF)并对冲4月中下旬的税期影响后,银行体系流动性总量基本没有变化。

            定向降准1个百分点

            央行公告指出,为引导金融机构加大对小微企业的支持力度,增加银行体系资金的稳定性,优化流动性结构,央行决定从4月25日起,下调大型商业银行、股份制商业银行、城市商业银行、非县域农村商业银行、外资银行人民币存款准备金率1个百分点;同日,上述银行将各自按照“先借先还”的顺序,使用降准释放的资金偿还其所借央行的中期借贷便利(MLF)。

            央行相关负责人表示,此次对部分金融机构降准以及置换中期借贷便利(MLF)的操作,主要涉及大型商业银行、股份制商业银行、城市商业银行、非县域农村商业银行、外资银行,这几类银行目前存款准备金率的基准档次为相对较高的17%或15%,借用MLF的机构也都在这几类银行之中。其他存款准备金率已经处在较低水平的金融机构不在此次操作范围内。

            具体操作将分为两步:第一步,从4月25日起,下调上述几类银行人民币存款准备金率1个百分点;第二步,在降准当日,持有未到期MLF的银行,各自按照“先借先还”的顺序,用降准释放的资金偿还其所借央行的MLF,降准释放的资金略多于需要偿还的MLF。以2018年一季度末数据估算,操作当日偿还MLF约9000亿元,同时释放增量资金约4000亿元,大部分增量资金释放给了城商行和非县域农商行。

          In April 17th, the central bank issued a notice that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of some banks by 1 percentage points from April 25th. The former governor of the central bank, Yi Gang, released a signal that "is ready to tighten monetary policy", therefore, the central bank is obviously outside the market expectations, but in the opinion of analysts, this reduction will not affect the steady and neutral monetary policy orientation. In the middle of the replacement loan facility (MLF) and hedging the tax period in mid 4 months, the total liquidity of the banking system basically remained unchanged.

          Directional reduction of 1 percentage points

          The central bank announced that in order to guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, increase the stability of the bank system funds and optimize the liquidity structure, the central bank decided to downgrade the large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, urban commercial banks, non county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks RMB from April 25th. The deposit reserve ratio is 1 percentage points; on the same day, the banks will repay their central bank's mid term lending convenience (MLF) in the order of "first loan first and first".

          Central bank related officials said that the reduction of some financial institutions and the operation of the replacement of MLF, mainly involving large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, urban commercial banks, non County Rural Commercial Banks and foreign banks. For the higher 17% or 15%, institutions that borrow MLF are among these banks. Other deposit reserve ratios are already at a relatively low level and are not within the scope of this operation.

          The specific operation will be divided into two steps: in the first step, from April 25th, the rate of RMB deposit reserve requirement is reduced by 1 percentage points, and the second step is to hold the undue MLF in the same day. The money is slightly more than the MLF that needs to be repaid. With the data estimated at the end of the first quarter of 2018, the operation was paid about 900 billion yuan on the day of operation, and the release of incremental funds was about 400 billion yuan. Most of the incremental funds were released to the commercial banks of and the non County agricultural firms.

            货币政策保持稳健中性

            事实上,易纲日前曾表示,“已经做好货币政策收紧的准备”。而在此时,央行实施定向降准操作,显然在市场预期之外。不过,在分析人士看来,这并不意味着货币政策有所变化。

            “央行此次降准政策,显然和很多市场预期不同,但充分证明了当前宏观经济和产业经济发展的特殊性。”易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进表示,降准的逻辑在于,当前流动性不足的风险开始增加,从银行体系的稳健运作以及产业经济的成本降低等角度出发,实际上都需要有类似降准的做法。类似做法自然是在当前资金面持续收紧的情况下,属于“送春风”的效应。

            央行负责人表示,此次降准释放的资金大部分用于偿还MLF,属于两种流动性调节工具的替代,而余下的小部分资金则与4月中下旬的税期形成对冲,因此,在优化流动性结构的同时,银行体系流动性的总量基本没有变化,保持中性。该负责人同时表示,中国是发展中国家,为了防范金融风险,仍需保持相对较高的存款准备金率。

            在中国民生银行首席研究员温彬看来,此次降准,央行对释放的资金进行了精准的安排,不会对市场流动性造成影响。由此可见,央行继续保持货币政策稳健基调不变。

            而对于货币政策未来取向,央行相关负责人表示,将继续实施稳健中性的货币政策,保持流动性合理稳定,引导货币信贷和社会融资规模平稳适度增长,为高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。

            缓解小微企业融资难题

            从此次降准的背景来看,苏宁金融研究院宏观经济中心主任黄志龙认为,当前存款准备金率尽管经过2016年3月之前的5次全面降准,但仍处于高位,无论是与中国历史准备金率平均水平相比,还是在全球范围内,当前的准备金率仍然整体偏高,也是比较罕见的。

          Monetary policy is stable and neutral

          In fact, Yi Gang, said before, "is well prepared to tighten monetary policy". At this point, the central bank to implement directional reduction operation, obviously outside the market expectations. However, in the eyes of analysts, this does not mean that monetary policy has changed.

          "The central bank's Quasi reduction policy is obviously different from many market expectations, but it fully demonstrates the particularity of the current macro-economic and industrial economic development." Yan Yuejin, director of research at the center for think-tank at the Institute of Yi - Ju, said the logic was that the current risk of insufficient liquidity began to increase, in fact, from the perspective of the sound operation of the banking system and the cost reduction of the industrial economy. Similar practice is naturally in the current capital market continues to tighten the situation, belongs to the "spring breeze" effect.

          The head of the central bank said that most of the funds released by the central bank were used to repay MLF, which belonged to the replacement of two kinds of liquidity adjustment tools, while the remaining small amounts of funds were hedged with the tax period in late 4 months. Therefore, the total liquidity of the banking system was basically unchanged at the same time, while the liquidity structure was optimized. Of. The official also said that China is a developing country, and in order to prevent financial risks, it still needs to maintain a relatively high deposit reserve ratio.

          Wen Bin, chief researcher of the Chinese people's livelihood bank, looks that the central bank has made a precise arrangement for the release of funds, and will not affect the liquidity of the market. This shows that the central bank will continue to maintain a stable monetary policy tone.

          For the future orientation of monetary policy, the central bank officials said that the central bank will continue to implement a stable and neutral monetary policy, maintain a reasonable and stable liquidity, guide the stable and moderate growth of monetary credit and the scale of social financing, and create an appropriate monetary and financial environment for high quality development and the structural reform of the supply side.

          Alleviating the financing problem of small and micro enterprises

          From this point of view, Huang Zhilong, director of the macro economic center of the Suning Institute of finance, believes that the current reserve ratio is still at a high level despite 5 overall reductions before March 2016, whether it is compared with the average level of China's historical reserve ratio, or the current reserve ratio in the world. It is still relatively uncommon as a whole.

            国金证券李立峰表示,随着外需出现高度不确定性,今年货币政策理应有所转向,由中性偏紧转向适度扩大内需。

            而对于此次降准出于何种考虑,央行相关负责人表示,我国小微企业仍面临融资难、融资贵的问题。为了加大对小微企业的支持力度,可以通过适当降低法定存款准备金率置换一部分央行借贷资金,进一步增加银行体系资金的稳定性,优化流动性结构,同时适当释放增量资金。

            具体来看:一是可以增加长期资金供应,银行资金成本将有所降低。置换MLF使商业银行付息成本有所减少,有利于降低企业融资成本。二是释放4000亿元增量资金,增加了小微企业贷款的低成本资金来源。

          State securities Li Lifeng said that with the high uncertainty of external demand, this year's monetary policy should be shifted from a neutral to a moderate expansion of domestic demand.

          For this reason, the relevant person in charge of the central bank said that China's small and micro enterprises still face difficulties in financing and financing. In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises, a part of central bank lending funds can be replaced by the proper reduction of the statutory deposit reserve ratio, to further increase the stability of the bank system funds, optimize the liquidity structure, and appropriately release the incremental funds.

          Specifically, first, we can increase the long-term capital supply, and the cost of bank funds will be reduced. The replacement of MLF reduces the interest cost of commercial banks, which helps to reduce the financing cost of enterprises. The two is to release 400 billion yuan incremental funds, and increase the source of low cost capital for small and micro enterprise loans.

            在严跃进看来,降准的直接效应就在于银行的可用资金会增加,这样会直接带来流动性的增强和资金成本的降低,所以对于各类银行来说未来在贷款等领域的自由度会上升,同时对于相关产业的支持力度也会加大。

            “此次降准有利于扩大中小型商业银行和城商行的可贷资金规模,此次释放的流动性,也主要是通过中小银行和城商行释放的。”黄志龙分析认为,整体来看,此次降准操作和置换MLF,有利于降低整个商业银行的负债端成本,特别有利于降低普惠金融、小微金融、三农金融的资金成本,同时补充流动性供应。

          In Yan Yuejin's view, the direct effect of the reduction is that the bank's available funds will increase, which will lead to a direct increase in liquidity and a decrease in the cost of funds, so the degree of freedom in the fields of future loans for all types of banks will rise and support for related industries will also increase.

          "This reduction is conducive to the expansion of the size of the loan funds of the small and medium commercial banks and the city commercial banks, the release of liquidity, also mainly through small and medium banks and commercial banks released." Huang Zhilong analysis believes that, on the whole, the reduction of the quasi operation and replacement of MLF will help reduce the cost of the whole commercial bank's indebtedness, especially to reduce the capital cost of Inclusive Finance, small and micro finance and three rural finance, and supplement the liquidity supply at the same time.

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