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          中兴跌倒 倒逼中国 中兴通讯 创新产业_www.forex21.cn

          时间:2018/4/18 14:11:30 点击:

            核心提示: 时隔一年,中兴通讯再次被美国商务部“封杀”,4月17日,对于美国企业被禁在未来...
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          隔一年,中兴通讯再次被美国商务部“封杀”,4月17日,对于美国企业被禁在未来七年内向中兴通讯销售元器件,中国商务部做出坚决回应。在美国近期对中国出口进行制裁的十大行业中,中兴所在的信息通信业成为首要打击目标,该公司大力发展5G技术,是被“盯上”的重要因素。业内专家指出,通过本次制裁可以看到,中国在芯片、元器件领域仍然较为弱势,因此大力发展创新产业,逐步弥补产业差距,才是应对此类风波的终极手段。

            美国对中兴再祭“杀招”

            4月16日晚间,美国商务部官员透露,因为违反美国规定,美国企业被禁在未来七年内向中国电信设备制造商中兴通讯销售元器件。美国商务部官员表示,根据当时的协议,中兴通讯承诺解雇4名高级雇员,并通过减少奖金或处罚等方式处罚35名员工。但中兴通讯在今年3月承认,该公司只解雇了4名高级雇员,未处罚或减少35名员工的奖金。

          One year later, ZTE was once again "sealed off" by the US Ministry of Commerce. In April 17th, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce made a firm response to the sale of American enterprises to ZTE in the next seven years. In the ten major industries in the United States, the information and communication industry of ZTE is the most important target in the recent ten major industries to impose sanctions on China's exports, and the company's great effort to develop its technology is an important factor in "stare". Industry experts pointed out that, through this sanctions, we can see that China is still more vulnerable in the field of chips and components, so it is the ultimate means to deal with this kind of wave by developing innovative industries and gradually making up the industrial gap.

          The American re offering of ZTE

          In the late April 16th, u. S. Commerce Department officials revealed that American companies were banned from selling components to China Telecom equipment manufacturer ZTE in the next seven years because of violation of the US regulations. In accordance with the agreement, ZTE promised to dismiss 4 senior employees and punish 35 employees by reducing bonuses or punishments, according to the agreement. But ZTE agreed in March of this year that it only fired 4 senior employees and did not punish or reduce 35 employees' bonuses.

            对此,中兴通讯通过官微表示,中兴通讯已获悉美国商务部对公司激活拒绝令。公司正在全面评估此事件对公司可能产生的影响,与各方积极沟通与应对。

            中国商务部新闻发言人也表示,中方注意到美国商务部宣布对中兴通讯采取出口管制的措施。中方一贯要求中国企业在海外经营过程中,遵守东道国的法律政策,合法合规开展经营。中兴通讯与数百家美国企业开展了广泛的贸易投资合作,为美国贡献了数以万计的就业岗位。希望美方依法依规,妥善处理,并为企业创造公正、公平、稳定的法律和政策环境。中国商务部将密切关注事态进展,随时准备采取必要措施,维护中国企业的合法权益。

            紧随美国的脚步,4月17日上午,美国的盟友英国也向中兴通讯发出“围剿令”。英国国家网络安全中心(NCSC)警告英国电信行业不要使用中兴通讯的设备和服务,认为那可能会对英国的国家安全构成风险。

            有关专家分析,在当前敏感的时间点选择制裁中兴通讯,明面上的理由是因为中兴通讯未按照协议,“处罚或减少35名员工的奖金”。不过,该理由经不起推敲,美英“围剿”中兴通讯背后的真实意图是在打压中国的高科技公司,直指中国制造2025战略。在中国制造2025战略十大领域之一的新一代信息技术产业中,以中兴、华为为代表的中国5G技术研发已经处在全球领先地位。

          ZTE, according to official micro, has learned that the US Department of Commerce has refused to activate the company. The company is fully evaluating the possible impact of this incident on the company and actively communicating with all sides.

          A spokesman for China's Ministry of commerce also said that China noticed that the US Department of Commerce announced the measures to control ZTE's export control. China has always asked Chinese enterprises to abide by the host country's laws and policies and operate legally and properly in the process of overseas operation. ZTE has launched extensive trade and investment cooperation with hundreds of American businesses, contributing tens of thousands of jobs to the United States. It is hoped that the US side will properly handle the regulations according to the law, and create a fair, fair and stable legal and policy environment for enterprises. China's Ministry of Commerce will pay close attention to the progress of events and be ready to take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.

          Following the footsteps of the United States, in the morning of April 17th, the US allies also sent "encirclement and suppression order" to ZTE. The British National Network Security Center (NCSC) warned the British Telecom industry not to use ZTE's equipment and services, saying it could pose a risk to the national security of the UK.

          Expert analysis, in the current sensitive time point for the choice of sanction ZTE communications, the reason is because ZTE is not in accordance with the agreement, "penalty or reduce the bonus of 35 employees." However, the reason behind this reason is that the true intention behind ZTE in the "encirclement and suppression" campaign of the United States and Britain is to press China's high-tech companies and directly refer to the 2025 strategy made in China. China's 5G technology research and development, represented by ZTE and HUAWEI, has been in the leading position in the new generation of information technology industry, which is one of the ten major areas of China's manufacturing of 2025 strategies.

            这并不是美国第一次“封杀”中兴通讯。2016年3月,美国政府以中兴通讯及3家关联公司违反美相关出口禁令为由,将中兴通讯列入出口限制名单,限制美国供应商向中兴通讯出口包括芯片在内的美国产品。

            全球产业链将受影响

            中兴通讯大力发展5G技术,是美国“盯上”的重要因素。不仅仅是中兴通讯,不久之前华为手机已经遭到美国无端贸易限制。前段时间博通计划收购高通,被美国政府等强制否决,据称就是因为担忧高通被收购后,5G创新无法领先中国等竞争对手。

            经过20多年筚路蓝缕,中国已经从“2G陪跑”到“3G跟跑”再到“4G并跑”,如今逐渐走向“5G领跑”。激烈竞争后剩下的4家全球性4G/5G设备供应商中,有两家是中国厂商,中兴通讯正是其中一家,目前已掌握5G端到端的产品技术,计划在今年下半年率先推出预商用5G解决方案。

          This is not the first time that the US has banned ZTE. In March 2016, the US government placed ZTE on export restrictions on the basis of ZTE communications and 3 related companies in violation of the U. S. export ban, limiting American suppliers to ZTE's export to American products including chips.

          The global industrial chain will be affected

          ZTE vigorously develops 5G technology, which is an important factor in the US's "staring". Not only ZTE, but HUAWEI Mobile has been restricted by the US's unprovoked trade. The previous time a plan to buy high Qualcomm, by the US government and other mandatory veto, it is said that because of the concern of the high pass, 5G innovation can not lead China and other competitors.

          After more than 20 years of hard work, China has gone from "2G running" to "3G running" to "4G and running". Now it is heading for "5G leading". Of the 4 global 4G/5G equipment suppliers that are left after the fierce competition, two are Chinese manufacturers, and ZTE is one of them. Now it has the 5G end - to - end product technology, and plans to launch the pre commercial 5G solution in the second half of this year.

            有业内人士分析认为,通信业是受益全球化、推动全球化发展最具影响力的行业之一,单个国家无法构建整个产业生态,全球化产业分工非常细致。本次美国制裁中兴通讯,如无法妥善解决,将给中兴通讯、给中国通信业、给全球通信产业链都带来较大的负面影响。

            就中兴通讯来讲,德银称,即使能够从其他国内供应商采购,该公司利用重新配置产品向客户提供服务的能力也有可能受到严重影响,鉴于某些芯片及滤光器采购自美国及难以被取替,因此预计该公司的无线产品将会受到影响。

            对此,资深通信专家项立刚表示,美国对中兴通讯的制裁,确实会对中兴通讯产生负面影响,但马上面临直接损失的也会是美国公司,中小公司可能会面临灭顶之灾,高通、英特尔这样的大公司如果失去中兴通讯这样的大客户,对于它们来说也不是一个好消息。而如果中兴通讯转向其他竞争对手,如手机芯片采用联发科的产品,这对于高通不是什么好事情。

            “这些公司大多位居全球光器件供应商TOP 10,股价暴跌的原因是深度依赖中兴通讯等中国设备商的采购,深度依赖中国市场,例如Acacia,业绩的30%是由中兴通讯贡献。打压中国信息通信业,美国供应商很难做到独善其身,必然是一个双输的结局。”项立刚说。

          According to the analysis of the industry, the communication industry is one of the most influential industries that benefit globalization and promote the development of globalization. A single country can not build the whole industry ecology, and the division of labor in the global industry is very meticulous. The United States sanction ZTE communications, if not properly solved, will bring great negative impact on ZTE, China's communications industry and the global communications industry chain.

          In terms of ZTE, Deutsche said that the company's ability to use reconfigured products to provide services to customers could be seriously affected even if it could be purchased from other domestic suppliers. Given that some of the chips and filters are purchased from the United States and are difficult to be replaced, it is expected that the company's wireless products will be affected.

          In this regard, senior communications expert Xiang Ligang said that the U. S. sanctions on ZTE will have a negative impact on ZTE communications, but the immediate immediate losses will also be American companies, and small and medium companies may face catastrophe, high Qualcomm, Intel and other big companies such as ZTE It's not a good news for them. If ZTE is turning to other competitors, such as mobile phone chip, using MediaTek products, this is not a good thing for Qualcomm.

          "Most of these companies are located in TOP 10, a global optical device supplier. The stock price plunge is due to the deep dependence of Chinese equipment suppliers such as ZTE, which is deeply dependent on the Chinese market, such as Acacia, and the 30% of its performance is contributed by ZTE. To suppress the information and communication industry in China, it is hard for us suppliers to be independent. Xiang Ligang said.

            中金报告则指出,美国商务部对中兴通讯施加出口权限禁止令,若不能在1-2月内达成和解,会影响通信设备和手机等业务的正常生产与销售,同时对当前全球和中国运营商网络建设带来一定影响,并有可能影响未来5G网络的推进。目前中兴通讯占全球电信设备市场约10%的市场份额,占中国电信设备市场约30%市场份额。中兴通讯有1-2月的零部件存货,若不能尽快达成和解,会影响相关业务。

            封锁是中国企业的机会

            虽然封锁的结果肯定不利于中兴通讯,但是对中国产业可能是一件好事。“这次封锁可能就是我们的机会,比如手机芯片,中国在3G时代用上了TD-SCDMA,全世界的芯片厂商都不支持,中国只能自己做手机芯片,因此展讯、联芯等一批企业将会崛起,虽然很艰难,但能够逼着这些企业成长。正好给中国企业留出市场空间,几年的时间,中国的手机芯片已经有了一定的规模,包括后面华为和海思的加入。现在每年有上亿片中国自己的手机芯片在手机中运行,而且这个量还在不断增加,这就是封锁让中国得到的机会。”项立刚坦言。

          The CICC report pointed out that the U. S. commerce department imposed a ban on the export authority of ZTE, which would affect the normal production and sales of communications equipment and mobile phones in 1-2 months, and had a certain impact on the current global and Chinese operators' network construction, and could affect the future of the 5G network. . Currently, ZTE accounts for about 10% market share of the global telecom equipment market, accounting for about 30% market share of the China Telecom equipment market. ZTE has 1-2 months of spare parts inventory. If it can not be settled as soon as possible, it will affect related businesses.

          Blockade is an opportunity for Chinese Enterprises

          Although the blockade result is not conducive to ZTE, it may be a good thing for China's industry. "This blockade may be our opportunity, such as mobile phone chips, China in the 3G era of TD-SCDMA, the world's chip manufacturers do not support, China can only do their own mobile chip, so a number of enterprises will rise, although very difficult, but can force these enterprises to grow. Just leaving the market space for Chinese enterprises, in the past few years, China's mobile phone chips have already had a certain scale, including the entry of HUAWEI and Hass. There are hundreds of millions of Chinese mobile phone chips running on mobile phones every year, and this amount is still increasing, which is the opportunity for the blockade to get China. Xiang Ligang confessed.

            通过本次制裁可以看到,中国在芯片、元器件领域仍然较为弱势。国内通讯网站C114分析指出,在终端基带芯片上,还有联发科和展讯替代高通,但在服务器芯片层面,美国供应商一家独大,在通信网络的核心光芯片层面,主要以美国供应商为主。因此大力发展创新产业,逐步弥补产业差距,才是应对此类风波的终极手段。

            3月23日,IC Insights公布全球2017年Fabless芯片公司情况。美国企业占全球份额约53%,加上即将迁回美国的新博通,美国占比约69%,可谓一家独大。中国内地2017年全球占比约11%,低于中国台湾地区的16%,排名第三。其中还包括华为、海思、中兴微电子与大唐半导体的自用芯片,除去这些,中国芯片只能占比5%-6%。

          Through this sanctions, we can see that China is still relatively vulnerable in the field of chips and components. The C114 analysis of the domestic communication website points out that on the terminal baseband chips, there are also the joint and the display substitutes for high pass, but at the server chip level, the US supplier is one big and the core optical chip level of the communication network is mainly based on the US suppliers. Therefore, vigorously developing innovative industries and gradually making up the industrial gap is the ultimate way to deal with such storms.

          In March 23rd, IC Insights announced the global Fabless chip company in 2017. American enterprises account for about 53% of the world's total, plus the new Broadcom that will soon move back to the US. The United States accounts for about 69% of the total. Mainland China accounted for about 11% of the world's total in 2017, which is 16% lower than that in China's Taiwan region, ranking third. It also includes HUAWEI, Hass, Zhongxing microelectronics and Datang semiconductor's self chip. Excluding these, China's chips can only account for 5%-6%.

            数据显示,中国每年需要进口2300亿美元芯片,而且连续多年位居单品进口第一位。这2300亿美元芯片,要么是客户指定不能更改的芯片,要么是中国不能自主设计生产必须要进口的芯片。

            当然,中国芯片也在一步步逐渐发展过程中。根据IC Insights发布的2017年全球前十大Fabless排名,国内有两家厂商杀进前十名,分别是海思和紫光集团(展讯+RDA),这两者分别以47.15亿美元和20.50亿美元的收入位居第7位和第10位,其中海思的同比增长更是达到惊人的21%,仅仅次于去年火热的英伟达和AMD,在Fabless增长中位居全球第三。

          Data show that China needs to import 230 billion US dollars per year, and has been ranked first in the list of single products for many years. The 230 billion dollar chip is either the chip that the customer specifies the chip that cannot be changed, or the chip that China can not independently design and produce.

          Of course, China's chip is also developing step by step. According to IC Insights's top ten global ranking of Fabless in 2017, there are two domestic companies to kill the top ten, namely, Hass and purple light group (exhibition +RDA), which are ranked seventh and tenth in the income of $4 billion 715 million and $2 billion 50 million respectively. Last year, the fiery NVIDIA and AMD, ranked third in the world in Fabless growth.

            对于中美两国之间高科技领域摩擦,项立刚认为,未来还会不断加强。“中美两国高科技领域以前差距很大,现在这个差距在不断减少。以通信领域为例,摩托罗拉、思科、朗讯等企业在过去占据了中国市场很大份额,但是今天它们的份额在萎缩,甚至已经消失。而高通、英特尔这样的企业严重依赖中国客户,如果没有中国的手机企业,高通就无法生存,没有中国客户,英特尔也很受打击。同时,中国企业正在成长,逐渐蚕食美国企业的市场,这种情况下,冲突很难避免”。For the friction between China and the US, Xiang Ligang believes that the future will continue to strengthen. "The gap between China and the US is very large, and now the gap is decreasing. In the field of communications, companies such as Motorola, CISCO and Lucent have occupied a large share of the Chinese market in the past, but today their share is shrinking and even disappearing. And high pass, Intel and such enterprises are heavily dependent on Chinese customers, if there is no Chinese mobile phone business, Qualcomm can not survive, without Chinese customers, Intel is also very vulnerable. At the same time, Chinese enterprises are growing and are gradually eating away from the market of US businesses. Under such circumstances, conflicts are hard to avoid.

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